U.S. Open 2026: Ranking the entire field at Shinnecock, from No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to No. 156

The U.S. Open is golf’s toughest and truest test.

There’s a reason why the champion each year is usually ranked inside the top 25 in the world rankings. Last year’s winner, J.J. Spaun, was No. 25 per Data Golf entering the week, while Martin Kaymer was the last player ranked outside the top 25 to win when he captured the 2014 U.S. Open as the world No. 32. This national championship demands precision from all 14 clubs, though usually – I say this with 2020 and Winged Foot in mind – length is mitigated relative to other big tournaments due to the importance of playing second shots from the fairway.

Shinnecock Hills is arguably the USGA’s best venue, too. Missing the fairway is a severe penalty while uneven fairway lies, subtle elevation changes and undulating, fast greens make is difficult to get approach shots close to the hole. Players will certainly miss more greens than usual, or at least have longer looks with the putter than they are used to, putting a premium on scrambling and speed control. Well, that’s your entire bag right there. And now, add some early rain (65% on Thursday) and winds of 15-20 mph throughout the four days, including up to 27 mph gusts on Saturday.

So, how do we go about handicapping this week’s U.S. Open field? By focusing on driving accuracy and mostly ball-striking statistics, plus only considering such stats over the last few weeks and in recent U.S. Open rounds. I want players who are in form right now, not just benefitting from good play in February and March, and players who have proven it in this championship.

Here is what I’ve come up with, Nos. 1-156:

Nos. 1-10

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Jon Rahm
3. Rory McIlroy
4. J.J. Spaun
5. Russell Henley
6. Aaron Rai
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Kristoffer Reitan
9. Patrick Reed
10. Justin Rose

The usual suspects – Scheffler, Rahm and McIlroy – top this list because, well, they are the best. McIlroy’s iron play seems to be trending, though it’s a small sample size. Rahm will need to drive it better to win, but I could also see him dialing it back to find fairways. Spaun is rallying into form just in time for his defense, while Reitan has been the best approach player of the past month or so. Rose, who was T-10 here in 2018, popped higher in my model, though the putter has gone cold on him.

Nos. 11-20

11. Tommy Fleetwood
12. Wyndham Clark
13. Cameron Young
14. Justin Thomas
15. Ludvig Aberg
16. Alex Fitzpatrick
17. Si Woo Kim
18. Tyrrell Hatton
19. Matt Fitzpatrick
20. Sam Burns

One could argue that Clark is playing like the best player in the world right now after a win at the Byron Nelson, third at Memorial and another strong week in Canada. The one concern is he’s been awfully reliant on the flatstick. Speaking of the putter, that’s slowed Young down mightily of late. To me, Alex is the better bet of the Fitzpatrick brothers as he’s the better iron player and owns three top-10s in as many signature events since earning his card. Burns has done a lot of things well since about mid-March.

Nos. 21-30

21. Joaquin Niemann
22. Nicolai Hojgaard
23. Xander Schauffele
24. Brooks Koepka
25. Shane Lowry
26. Andrew Novak
27. Min Woo Lee
28. Viktor Hovland
29. Chris Gotterup
30. Adam Scott

Sure, Schauffele boasts four straight top-12s in majors, but he can’t turn in approach numbers like he did at Aronimink and in other recent starts and expect to do so at Shinnecock; this is a conservative ranking for him. Same goes with Koepka, who would be in my top 15 if not for the injury concern (left hand numbness). Novak continues to get more comfortable in majors, and while his results have suffered because of the short game and putting, I’ll take a guy who is still ball-striking it a very high level. Hovland fits a similar profile to Novak, while Lee has flashed at this championship before with a T-5 in 2023 and top-30s on both sides of that.

Nos. 31-40

31. Bryson DeChambeau
32. Bud Cauley
33. Kurt Kitayama
34. Maverick McNealy
35. Jordan Spieth
36. Gary Woodland
37. Tom Kim
38. Collin Morikawa
39. J.T. Poston
40. Harris English

DeChambeau has missed two straight major cuts, which makes it impossible to put him in the top 30 when he’s combined poor iron play and chipping. Kitayama has never made a U.S. Open cut in four attempts, but he’s on a heater and a guy who hits it this well can’t possibly miss a fifth straight U.S. Open cut. Even before his Canada win, Cauley had the recent stats to indicate a solid U.S. Open play; he just needed to get into the field. Kim has been a top-10 approach player this past month and his T-33 at Oakmont was his worst U.S. Open finish in his last four starts. Morikawa’s ranking will stand out, but the only reason he made the cut at the PGA is because of his putting, which obviously has been historically unreliable. The only hope for Morikawa is that he’s gotten rest, is feeling healthier and the ball-striking will again be elite.

Nos. 41-50

41. Ryan Gerard
42. Lucas Herbert
43. Harry Hall
44. Alex Smalley
45. Max Greyserman
46. a-Jackson Koivun
47. Jayden Schaper
48. Hideki Matsuyama
49. Keith Mitchell
50. Jacob Bridgeman

I promise it was merely a coincidence that two Duke alums, a North Carolina alum and a Chapel Hill native in Koivun ended up in this tier. Smalley had a rough Memorial, but I’m not ignoring the two top-3s before that. Gerard might not hit it high enough to win at Shinnecock, but he’s trending, especially with the putter. I debated where to slot Koivun; the expectations will be through the roof, but I feel a top-50 will be a success all things considered; he just doesn’t chip it will enough yet to win on this setup. Matsuyama is struggling off the tee, but if he chooses to lean less on the driver, he’s got the U.S. Open chops to outperform this ranking. The putter is back for Bridgeman, who has also now had two nice approach weeks in a row, too.

Nos. 51-60

a-Preston Stout
Sepp Straka
Ugo Coussaud
Keegan Bradley
Chris Kirk
Andrew Putnam
Ben James
Cooper Dossey
Ben Griffin
David Puig

Despite being one of the best iron players and most accurate drivers on Tour, Straka has done nothing in his U.S. Open career. Stout is built for big, punishing ballparks, having already had success at places like Olympic, Southern Hills and Prairie Dunes. James is arguably the best ball-striker coming out of college this summer, but what he did Saturday in Canada scares me off; the good is really good, though, but he just can’t make enough putts. Dossey has five top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour this season. Griffin should probably be higher since he’s got two top-3s in his last five starts and was T-10 last year at Oakmont, but if Memorial is any indication, the putter has cooled and the iron play will need to be more consistent than it has been these last few months.

Nos. 61-70

Alex Noren
Brian Harman
Johnny Keefer
Max McGreevy
Michael Brennan
Nick Taylor
Davis Thompson
Matti Schmid
Ryan Fox
Sungjae Im

Harman hasn’t missed a major cut since the 2024 Masters. Keefer had a bad start to the season, but he’s been a top-25 ball-striker this past month and the chipping looked to have turned a corner in Canada.

Nos. 71-80

Jackson Suber
Ryo Hisatsune
Cameron Smith
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Daniel Berger
Corey Conners
Ben Kohles
Adrien Dumont de Chassart
Dustin Johnson
Sahith Theegala

Suber and Yellamaraju get bumps for nice weeks in Canada, while Berger’s frustrating play since really API is offset slightly by the fact he was T-6 here in 2018. Conners doesn’t have a top-20 finish since March. Keep an eye on ADDC, who has been nails around and on the greens; if he can find fairways, I like him to make the cut.

Nos. 81-90

Robert MacIntyre
Rickie Fowler
Michael Kim
Nathan Kimsey
Sam Stevens
John Parry
Matt McCarty
Akshay Bhatia
Jason Day
William Mouw

Don’t be tempted by MacIntyre’s runner-up at Oakmont; the iron play has been abysmal and the main reason why he’s already missed two major cuts this year. Fowler has fallen off a cliff it seems since that great pre-PGA run. Bhatia’s slump dates to The Players.

Nos. 91-100

Pierceson Coody
Patrick Rodgers
Cole Hammer
Carlos Ortiz
Billy Horschel
Kevin Roy
Emiliano Grillo
a-Miles Russell
Alejandro Tosti
Jimmy Stanger

Some intriguing names in this group, with Coody one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, Hammer enjoying a breakout year on KFT and Russell making his major debut. Stanger, in the second-to-last start under his medical extension, bogeyed his last hole in Canada to drop to T-4, still a great finish, but it means he still has work to do at the U.S. Open to keep full status on Tour; top 40 seems to be the target.

The rest

Nos. 101-110
Nico Echavarria
Laurie Canter
a-Ryder Cowan
Zac Blair
a-Ethan Fang
Matthew Jordan
James Nicholas
Adrien Saddier
Caleb Surratt
Carl Yuan

Nos. 111-120
Nick Hardy
Neal Shipley
a-Arni Sveinsson
a-Eric Lee
Angel Hidalgo
Taihei Sato
Chandler Phillips
Dylan Wu
Taylor Montgomery
Ben Silverman

Nos. 121-130
Niklas Norgaard
Hennie du Plessis
Padraig Harrington
Peter Uihlein
Rocco Repetto Taylor
Jake Peacock
Jackson Van Paris
Filippo Celli
a-Logan Reilly
a-Jackson Herrington

Nos. 131-140
Brandon Wu
Graeme McDowell
a-Mason Howell
Harry Higgs
Marcelo Rozo
Kaito Onishi
a-Bryan Lee
a-Giuseppe Puebla
Ryuichi Oiwa
Spencer Tibbits

Nos. 141-156
a-Chase Kyes
Greyson Leach
J.B. Holmes
Jake Sollon
Manav Shah
a-Marek Fleming
a-Vaughn Harber
a-Jack Schoenberger
a-Jackson Ormond
a-Brandon Holtz
a-Hamilton Coleman
Robbie Higgins
a-Mateo Pulcini
T.K. Kim
a-Matthew Robles
Jake Knapp (injury concern, as he’s not played since the RBC Heritage; top 40 if healthy)